zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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Watchful Wednesday 1/10/07

Posted by zmann on January 10, 2007

Oil Had A Crazy Ride Yesterday. Oil dropped as much as $2.21 yesterday to a new interday low of $53.88 before recovering most of its losses to end the day down only $0.45 at $55.64. The chart still looks hideous and the reasons for its slide still remain in place:

  • Too much oil in storage in the US and Japan and now apparently in Poland, Germany, Hungary, and Russia as well (hats off to Putin for inadvertently confirming that yesterday through his mulling of curtailing output). The last Vlad that caused this much trouble in Europe just impaled people in large groups – he didn’t threaten to let them freeze. Hopefully we won’t have to start calling Putin Vlad, the curtailer.
  • Persistent lack of winter – I know it’s a season but maybe we can coin a new name for it. How about Spring, Summer, Fall, and Temperate? Seriously, every time I wear a T-shirt and shorts outside in January (and break a sweat) I feel like running back inside to go long OO and short ACAT. What greater proof do you need of global warming than faling sales of snow mobiles and rising sales of sunglasses? Just kidding. They’ll always need snow mobiles around Denver. By the way, forecasted temperatures for the weekend in the nation’s southern mid section have jumped about 5 degrees in the last two days.
  • Opec continues to cheat. I’m not going over this again this week but here’s a long but very good article on Opec’s cheating ways, how Putin’s growing oil empire is frustrating Opec and how all that relates to oil, gold, and everything else.
  • More sellers than buyers as the February contract breaks key technical support at $55. They will reassert their presence again when cross that boundary. Note how the chart fell apart at 6:00 EST yesterday – the volume for that time of day was size! Note also that rally on this side of the pond didn’t occur until the Europeans were safely out of the way. Oh look, the Europeans are awake again and oil is down $0.70 and toying with that $55 mark again.

55-oil-support.JPG

CNBC did its share of pumping with guest after guest saying that this weakness is only temporary and that Opec’s recent cuts will balance the market. CNBC even cited our very own EIA as claiming that a disruption of oil supplies coming out of Opec could cause prices to rise as high as $65. Really? And if a comet hit the earth how much would prices fall on the surplus created by the fact that no one would be driving? Opec’s about as likely to follow through on its “cuts”. Whose side are you G-men on anyway?

No matter, everything rests on today’s inventory data. Surveys of analysts and traders call for:

  • The expected change in Crude Oil inventories ranges from down 500,000 barrels (Bloomberg) to up 800,000 bls at Dow Jones – they really should try to call the same guys but obviously some outlier in the Bloomberg survey is trying to skew the game.
  • Distillate Up 2 mm bls
  • Gasoline Up 2.6 mm bls

Opec Watch: Rumors Swirl Like Robes In A Desert Wind. Lots of rumors regarding an emergency meeting. Lots of emergency phone calls. Lots of cross currents. Iran and Venezuela definitely want to accelerate cuts– since they didn’t abide by the last round of cuts and others did it must seem like a win-win for them. Qatar is rumored to be accelerating the Feb 1 cut to now but who knows.

Putin Watch: Man I Wish This Guy Had His Own Apprentice Show! In telephone talks with Belarus. Winter apparently is the time for applying leverage. Putin claims Belarus was siphoning oil from the ironically named friendship pipeline. At the same time Putin told his cabinet that Russia will lose $3.3 billion over natural gas agreements that were designed to favor Belarus and “support our Belarus colleagues.” So on the one hand Belarus is a thieving regime and on the other Russia is getting bent over support them? Just like the recent “environmental squabbles” at the Sahkalin developments that were pronounced clean and pure once Russia gained majority control of the projects I’ll bet that here a renegotiation of those oh so generous gas contracts yields a reopened oil pipeline.

Natural Gas Is Starting To Bounce… As I said yesterday, gas would punch back towards $6 if oil could hold it’s early morning losses. Oil rallied and gas, after managing only a nickel decline in the morning rallied to close up a completely idiotic $0.25 to $6.63. The rally, now up 10% in 2 weeks, is due to the blue stuff seen here making its way slowly eastward for the first time in nearly a month.

…But It Should Be A Brief Rally Before Tripping Below $6. Given: 1) the record amount of gas in storage at year end, and 2) the prospect of at least two more wimpy withdrawals to start the month of January I think this rally will peter out soon (heating degree days were only 147 last week and won’t break 200 this week either). Once the cold weather gets here and forecasts start to warm up again on the other side of it (as forecastors believe it will be fairly short lived) we should see gas fall back for a test and ultimate failure of the $6 level.

This is what’s got gas jumping: AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi believes that if the weather pattern reaches its full potential, the dramatic change from warmth to cold could result in “one of the top-five coldest 30-day stretches in the past half century“. Bastardi is predicting bitter colder from mid-January to mid-February and even commented that many natural gas stocks could spike as inventories correct themselves. He sees an end to or weakening of El Nino causing this shift in the jet stream. Shift or not he’s behind the rally in gas prices and he should know better than to talk about stocks – but, what do you know, he’s a regular guest meteorologist on CNBC. I especially like his comment that too mamy forecastors rely on models these days and not on history. Right, stupid computers don’t know nothing. Me feel cold coming.

Analyst Watch: BTU started at Buy at B of A (Ouch! for today but he really should have waited for gas inventories to drag it a bit lower. Still, I’m glad I rolled this one to the Feb 35s on Monday and may double when the dust settles). BP cut to neutral at Bear Stearns.

Holdings Watch: The XOI had a pretty bad day considering the recovery in oil prices. Aside from XOM, all of the majors were off heavily in the morning and those lows carried through in the afternoon. —Aside: Yes I’m a bear at present but I think XOM‘s buyback program, flagging though it may be is not the only problem for shorts with that story. The real problem is the vaunted, safety stock status XOM has been granted by the Street. — While some mid and large cap E&Ps managed to break even on the day, their trading volume was well off average levels. Conversely for those names that remained down all day volume was high.

  • XOI – down 1.6% today to 1,116. 1,100 is your next critical test with the 50 and 200 dma ‘s left behind at 1,180 and 1,133 respectively. That grey candlestick skulking around at the bottom of the chart is oil (USO). Thanks to Lou last night for pointing out that another major, CVX, just warned for the fourth quarter. That won’t help this chart and if oil cooperates could be the impetus needed to give us that 1,100 test. Also note in the chart below how the late morning rally failed when the XOI bounced off the 200 dma from underneath.

xoi011007.JPG

From a longer term perspective the XOI (Big Oil) looks to be running out of steam. I threw in the USO ETF from inception last year for perspective.

xoi-5yr-with-oil.JPG

And Valuations Appear Stretched. The XOI is composed of 13 large cap, mostly oil focused stocks. From APC to XOM it is a whose who of mega cap energy names. I’ve added a Value Page ab(see top of blog at right) and will continue to add long term forward valuation graphs for select energy companies and (later) groups of companies. For now, suffice it to say that valuations, while not exceeding expensive for your run of the mill stock are pretty “up there” for the energy group.

Odds and Ends: If you haven’t seen “the absolute coolest thing ever“, at least this week anyway, you really should. My brand new 30G V Ipod looks so 2006 compared to this! I dare you not to play the demos. Note: if you have a ROKR forget what I said and do not click on the above link- you don’t need that kind of frustration.

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62 Responses to “Watchful Wednesday 1/10/07”

  1. ramana said

    Another excellent article from my favorite oil/energy expert. Zman, the day I dont read your morning report, its worse than not having my daily dose of required caffeine intake.

    Its amazing how CNBC carefully gathers all these energy experts and they all think alike. There must be a behaviourial scientist out there who monitors such ‘group think’ to challenge CNBC mischief.

    Thanks again zman.

    regards
    – Ramana

  2. zmann said

    Thanks for reading Ramana!

  3. Lou said

    The best friend of XOM, Chevron CVX,are trading down less than 1 percent following the company’s negative pre-announcement last night after market close. The $70 area is critical support. Next support is at $68.72 (lower limit of the price channel). There is a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart (objective $64 area, valid only on a breakdown below $69). On a break below $69, the following support levels may become downside objectives: $68.47, $67.15, $65.98, $64.99, $63.65.

    Slippy oil patch

  4. zmann said

    That Bastardi character is the Bono of meterology. He’s everywhere. Bloomberg sites him in a piece talking about how gas prices in Canada could rise if Bastardi’s 30 days of Ice Age hit. Then they re run the story using a find and replace with New York in lieu of Canada!

    Looking at the predictions from his site, Accuweather, vs Intellicst the differences are obvious. Both predict a mid month cooling period but the highs and lows are 5 to 10 degrees cooler by the 20th on the Accuweather site.

  5. zmann said

    CVX – what’s more is they warned on R&M margins but things aren’t so hot on the E&P side either. Maybe chemicals can save the majors for the 4Q but 1Q is starting to be a pretty big negative comp. Thanks again for the levels.

    SWN just released phenomenal growth numbers for 2007. If it gets popped much more I’ll be going long calls on this Bastardi weather event. I’d have to see at least a 10% pullback though.

  6. zmann said

    Don’t forget that PBW clean energy play. The top 10 holdings of the fund have been getting hit for 1 to 3% daily now and it’s breaking through $17 soundly at this point. Puts are still fairly cheap for February.

    EEE also keeps knocked for anywhere from 1 to 5% on an almost daily basis.

    USO trading wildly this morning. At 9:42 its hitting LOD

    Finally, that BofA upgrade of BTU is being met…with sellers.

  7. zmann said

    VTS looks to be making a move on its 50 dma. The seismic company has been bulletproof for years and the chart really appears to be rolling over. Seismic is usually the last to fall and the first to rise in the energy cycle due to the long lead times relative to actual cash flow inherent in its acquisition-interpretation-payoff cycle.

  8. zmann said

    Raymond James just upped BTU to buy. 2 brokers in 2 days. Still not much of a move but obviously the coal analysts are getting antsy. Not DDing yet.

  9. zmann said

    Oil looks miserable going into inventories.

  10. zmann said

    Setting 10%ish stops on APC, EOG, UPL, OII, and BTU

  11. zmann said

    UPL finally starting to break back down.

    Unfortunately still not in MUR…missed it by a nickel being a chitzy bastard. Still you don’t lose money just because you miss an entry trade…it just feels that way.

    Oil continues to look horrible with 10 to go before inventories. Stops in place because any surprise could cause a huge, if brief, rally.

  12. Attacking Mid said

    If SU goes below 69.75, I’m buying puts, as there’s no support until 67ish. If inventories cause crude to reverse, I’ll buy some SU calls.

    I now own 4 Feb 95 AAPL puts – down about $350 at this point.

    AM.

  13. zmann said

    huge proudcts builds.

    gasoline 3.8
    distillate 5.4

    big draw in crude must reflect another jump in refinery utilization (or something was shut) – initially oil sold off but is starting to rally on the crude number.

    No matter how you slice this is bad for refiners as product prices decline and curde prices apparently rise.

  14. zmann said

    Got stopped out of APC 42.50s on this spike for a 33% gain in 3 days. Oh well, still have the 40s.

  15. refinery util was up 91.5, but looks like imports were down.

    -SaneO

  16. Attacking Mid said

    Well, that didn’t work. I bought SU puts as soon as crude started going down. Figured I’d buy puts if/when the initial downdraft stalled. SU went the other way too quickly on me, so I bought the calls, but now I’ve got to make my money all on the exit side of the trade.

    I really like to get into these things by catching the volatility in the right direction so as to at LEAST eliminate the spreads.

    BTW, if it weren’t for the snowmobile tracks around here, I wouldnt be able to get back to the greenbelt to walk the dog. The wind is whistling as I type, with another snowstorm on the way to the Front Range.

    AM.

  17. Attacking Mid said

    Watching ECA for another put entry point. It’s heading up, but I’ll only take it if gets up to about $46.

    AAPL approaching my next entry point.

    AM.

  18. zmann said

    Bot MUR $47.50 for $1.30. Good to be bach short my favorite mini-major play.

  19. zmann said

    BTU – 2 brokers house buy recommendations and they can only raise it 2%. My feb 35 Ps are only off a dime! Coal still looks sick although it could perk up if those predicitons of the warmest year ever come true in 2007.

  20. zmann said

    Some stocks are proving to be much more sensitive to oil price moves right now. MRO, SU, VLO, SUN, TSO and even XOM look unusually highly correlated the last 2-3 days.

  21. zmann said

    New all time low for USO reached at 11:00 est. Now that thet those pesky Europeans are out of the way here comes the pump.

  22. help said

    In terms of PST what time does generally get a pump & what time is it generally the lows of the day. Is there some kind of a trend

  23. zmann said

    Hey help! It varies but I’d say 2 out of 3 days you get one at 11:00 est (8 pst) and another in the last 30 minutes of Nymex trading (10 pst).

    CNBC: 2 guest just blamed the decline on oil and gas on hedge funds…not the weather. they cited the CFTC reports. It’s about time they found someone worth interviewing!

  24. help said

    Thx

    I am pulling out my OIL profits & am planning to buy AAPL 100 stocks & sell 1 call. Is it a good strategy?

    I am on the right side of winning *sigh* after ages

  25. zmann said

    Let me see if I get what you’re saying,

    Your buying the stock and then selling a covered call against it to reduce you basis? I think the stock’s is a bit extended here but the mania often takes days to unfold and I saw 2 PT upgrades to $120 and $125 this am so it may run for awhile.

    What strike is the call?

  26. zmann said

    EOG, SU, MUR, APC on the cusp of breaking down on the daily charts. Sick I got stopped out of my ITM puts on APC but my next strike appears to be about their so it’s a problem to have.

    Refiners are getting CRUSHED!!!

  27. help said

    I have not bought yet. I am hoping to sell 100 call.

    Right now not sure if I should get out of my oil PUTS.

    maybe I sohuld just take my profits

  28. zmann said

    XOI broken below 1,100 like hot knife through oily wax. No support until the September lows. Of course in September, oil was $8 higher than it is now. So why should those Septebmer levels really act as support? They shouldn’t.

  29. help said

    hmm.. so you think I am better off keeping my PUTs?

  30. help said

    where do I see XOI

  31. zmann said

    I think January puts are a risky bet right now as there’s just not much time left.

    In generally though I think the energy sector is going lower. Like I said before, there is a lot of go-go money in the sector that only cares about rising estimates and risng stock prices. They could care less about the differences between say, APC and EOG or XOM and COP. When the group starts looking iffy, like it does now, these guys sell and go buy something else they know just as little about – housing stocks, financials, specialty retail, tech what have you. And there are a lot of these guys and they control billions of dollars. They’ve been overweight energy for at least 3 years now so yes, I think the group has further to fall.

  32. zmann said

    on yahoo finance type in ^XOI as your symbol. Then click chart or look at the ones in this morning’s post. It’s off about 20 points today so you can see how it neatly crossed the 1,100 point threshhold.

  33. walter said

    How bad is this for refiners? I’ve seen VLO below 48, looks like a capitulation!

  34. help said

    I sold my xom puts for a decent profit. I had 20 of them at 1.55 yesterday , it almost went down to 1 but managed to mkae a decent profit @ 2. That gives me the option –

    1. Buy AAPl & sell call – Risky?

    2. Wait for a slight pullback on OIL & then buy Feb PUTs?

    3. buy PUTS – ICE or GOOG?

    4. Other interesting play?

    I also have XOM 10 Puts of SP 70 I am holding onto.

  35. zmann said

    Pretty bad Walter…considering the 2 majors have already warned about 4Q margins and prices were better then and we haven’t heard a thing out of the independent refiners I’d expect a warning any day now from VLO, TSO, SUN, WNR, or even HOC.

  36. zmann said

    Help –

    I like most of the many puts and few calls I’ve suggested on this site over the last weeks and months bought as alway on strength. I hate to chase unless I’ve got data or a drop dead gorgeous chart. I don’t give investment advice but instead tell you what I think and what I’m doing.

  37. help said

    Zmann sorry for stepping out of the line. In moments like this I put all the gains + principal in some stupid trade & end up losing it all.

    I was hoping you would based on your recomendations suggest something.

    the reason – It might have been attractive buying say EOG puts in the morning but not now etc

  38. zmann said

    Help – I understand no worries…it’s pretty hard to cross the line. It’s just that my ideas aren’t pulled out of thin air and aren’t as fast (day trady) as maybe what you’re looking for.

    I highly suggest you check out (for a one month subscription) the following site: http://www.philstockworld.com

    They’ve got exactly the kind of picks you’re looking for and a lot more non energy plays.

    As to EOG I’ve got puts right now and expect to through at least mid next week and very probably longer unless they take a serious dive.

    Thanks for reading and ask as many questions as you like!

  39. Attacking Mid said

    help, what’s a shame is that you didn’t buy back your AAPL call yesterday morning and hold the stock.

    You write a covered call when you want to hold a stock longish term, and you think the stock is not likely to go above the strike price of the option you’re selling (before it expires). 24 hours ago, you were concerned about the stock dropping. Now you’re no longer concerned about that risk?

    I mostly trade energy stocks, but I’ve been watching AAPL somewhat for a few months. I’ve been planning for some time to buy puts on it upon the news of the iphone. I started buying on yesterday’s big rise, and I’ve bought more today. I’m watching it still, and will buy yet more when I see action that makes me think it is likely to have a selloff. That’s my plan, and it may backfire horribly on me, but I will have managed my risk such that it won’t get me down for long.

    My suggestion is to read/research all you can, do your best to sift through all the info, form your own opinion, then go with it by entering a position. What I try to do is enter a position conservatively – maybe 25% – 33% of what I’m ultimately willing to risk. If I’m right, I make some money and reevaluate. If I’m wrong, I reevaluate and either take my loss (glad that I didn’t go “all in”) or add to my position.

    When I add to a position, it’s because I still believe my opinion was correct, but I didn’t get the timing quite right. This can start to get dangerous, as it’s easy to build a large position on the wrong side of a trade before you realize you were completely wrong.

    Be careful about taking direct recommendations from ANYONE, as traders are notorious for changing their mind in an instant. Zmann is a fantastic source for energy stock info sharing, but I know he’d be the first to tell you not to follow his lead blindly.

    Best of luck,

    AM.

  40. zmann said

    Help I agree with AM completely. Most of the guys trading options like the idea at the minute they buy it and hate it as soon as it goes the wrong way and either sell or DD too fast.

    However, if you are among the site-impaired I will accept you as follower. ;->

  41. edro said

    Zmann –

    Please add the time posted to your comments. Pehaps Jared could tell you how.

    Thanks

  42. help said

    Right now I am holding onto cash. A shame really but I want to make a cautious trade. So I was looking for Ideas.

    Seems to me there is no logical trade in the markeet with which I cna make money.

    Or probably I am just screwed up

  43. help said

    AM Thnks for the concern. I probably should have done it. Last year I was holding lots of calls & after the macworld I went heavily into negative. I did not want to risk losing another 1000 on the stock in the event it fell around $10.

    In any case it worked out good since I bought XOM puts & made around 800 or so so it kinda made up for it (At the risk of losing the money)

    Agree Aaple could go down & the selling options is not very exciting since there is not much premium so I am not going with it for now

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>help, what’s a shame is that you didn’t buy back your AAPL call yesterday morning and hold the stock.

  44. Attacking Mid said

    One of the things I set as a goal for this year was to increase my holding periods. When I started actively trading nearly 3 years ago, I tended to hold positions for weeks or months – even options. My holding periods have shrunk to the point that I was tagged a pattern day trader by my broker, which really screwed up my options trading (options don’t count in your “equity”, so I had to maintain $25K of stuff I didn’t necessarily want).

    Last fall, I got my broker to remove the PDT label, which freed me up to trade options more freely. However, I have to be very careful to avoid many “day trades”, so I don’t re-earn that ridiculous PDT label.

    Unfortunately, my avg holding period is still only a day or two so far this year (if I don’t count the several legacy penny stocks that I’m waiting for “someday” to come).

    Looking back, I made more money when I held longer, though the data is skewed by a HUGE win on the PKZ buyout a couple years ago.

    It’s amazing how you can get underwater on an option position, yet, if you hang on, it will so often come back around at some point before expiration.

    So, I’m writing it down here: I will endeavor to increase my holding periods starting now!

    AM.

  45. help said

    No longer in cash :p

    2 trades
    5 CME Puts 550 – already slightly in RED (@6)
    10 EOG Puts – Feb 60 around 2.50

  46. Attacking Mid said

    help, cash is exactly the place to be when you’re indecisive! One of the most common mistakes traders make (myself included), is getting antsy to make a trade. You can save yourself a lot of heartache by only entering a trade when you’re reasonably confident. That way, you’re more likely to have the conviction to hold through any brief downturns.

    Good luck,

    AM.

  47. zmann said

    Oil is channeling today – lower highs, lower lows. Just exactly what we want to see.

    Some weather forecastors calling for “storm of the century in the midwest this weekend.

    That 30 days of cold is already warming a bit. From yesterday through today accuweathers temps are up 5 degrees for Jan 20.

  48. help said

    Some reason OII is Green

  49. zmann said

    OII – not that I can see but its been strong since this morning. I got my eye on it for a DD. Like VTS, this is a longer term slowdown play. They’re deepwater guys so it takes a lot of negative price movement to impact the long term, high cap ex arenas they play in. Still, it shouldn’t be given a break when most of its peers continue to slide.

  50. help said

    Hopefully I will make a couple of quick bucks on my cME Puts on the day trade. I can dig myself deeped then into more OIl puts

  51. help said

    Gotta go..late for work will sync up later all

    Happy trading

  52. zmann said

    Edro – yep I know it’s a problem…busted an afternoon once trying to add it. Will look again and if not fixable by me will buzz jared. thx

  53. zmann said

    USO looks sick running into NYMEX close. Punch new LOD at 2:31 est

  54. Attacking Mid said

    Personally, EOG is the kind of stock I would tend to hold in my long term account. Not to say it won’t go down, but when you see a company that’s held by the likes of Davis, Capital, T. Rowe, etc., there’s some serious buying/staying power supporting that stock.

    For options plays, I prefer stuff that’s more psycho! ;^ )

    I used to work right next door to Enron in Houston. Occasionally would sneak into their downstairs workout facility with friend who worked there. Also got to sit nearly courtside in their Rockets seats at the Summit. Maybe I contributed to the collapse!

    AM.

  55. zmann said

    EOG – I remember when they sold their Indian ops to Enron in exchange for the rest of their freedom. Brilliant timing.

    Then they go to change their name from Enron Oil & Gas and the best they can do is EOG Resources? I guess so they wouldn’t have to change their ticker. All kidding aside it is one I too would own in my 401K but right now, I betting on them to the downside. They can’t grow any faster than what they’ve already announced, than less hedged than many gassy guys like CHK, and a lot of their gas comes from Trinidad where the prices are tied to the price of oil, not Henry Hub.

    Smart, conservative management team. Just think they’re a bit pricey here given the current commodity environment. Also, I like how reactive their stock is to oil prices.

  56. Attacking Mid said

    Action in oil/gas stocks today will contribute to my goal of longer holding periods. Even AAPL is stuck in a channel.

    Didn’t the Indian Gov’t seize those assets or something like that? One of my buddies worked in gas marketing – he went with the pipeline sales to Trans-Canada. Unfortunately lost most of his retirement funds in Enron stock. Now in the auto industry and doing well. Never would have predicted that turn of events.

    AM.

  57. zmann said

    Don’t know where they went after the transfer to Enron proper. I was in E&P research and I didn’t have to monitor them anymore…they were the pipeline guy’s problem from then on.

    Yep, it’s pretty sad what happened. I had a buddy pretty high up (but not too high) that left at the peak. He made out like a bandit!

  58. zmann said

    Oil went through $53.75 after Nymex close. Stocks are starting to trade off again but theirs no panick in the air.

    As I always say “Death by a thousand paper cuts is still death” … although it’s not as good for the TMV side of your puts!

  59. zmann said

    Edro – Just for you …TIME STAMPS! Had to go with a new theme but at least I’ve got the time now! Thanks for the prompting.

  60. Eric said

    I only see the “date” stamps and not the “time” stamps. Can you also turn on the time stamps?

    Great Blog! Keep up the good work.

  61. Lars said

    I’m seeing the time stamps ok.

  62. zmann said

    Damn, thought I had it licked. Unfortunately, the time stamps will have to wait for a new theme to be created. Sorry about that but I tried all the wordpress themes and none worked for me from a mechanics standpoint.

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