END – Addendum – Moving In The Right Direction
Posted by zmann on March 11, 2007
The following post is an addendum to my book report on END from last Thursday (Endeavour Petroleum – One Interesting Little Minnow – March 8, 2007). The following are what I feel to be my best estimates with a strong leaning towards conservatism.
The production profile below incorporates my assumptions for reasonable estimates of field declines and the timing and rate of additions from sanctioned field developments from publicly available sources. It does not assume any exploratory success or additional acquisitions. It has not been sanctioned by the company although it shadows the graphic in my prior post which was the company’s publicly disclosed production profile.
Note: My 2007 production is within current guidance for 2007 of 8,800 to 9,200 boepd despite: 1) current production (early March 2007) of ~ 10,000 boepd and 2) Enoch field production of ~ 1,000 boepd scheduled to come on-line in the second quarter. I’d always rather be able to take numbers up than be forced to bring them down and I’d like to see continued delivery on the promise of low decline rates for the acquired U.K. production base.
Note: Oil hedges include swaption volumes.
Summary: Moving in the right direction folks!
2007 and beyond: $60 and $6 index prices held flat. I think this is pretty conservative, especially on the out year gas price.