zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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  • Hello and Welcome - I’ve created this blog for the purpose of discussing energy related topics - primarily but not limited to oil and natural gas - and their potential impact on stocks, options, and futures. I am an amateur investor/trader and make no assurances about the opinions expressed on this blog. Please consult your financial advisor before buying, selling, borrowing, or otherwise risking capital based upon ideas taken from this site. Any advice construed from this website is worth what you paid me for it.
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Archive for January 15th, 2007

Just for Jamie!

Posted by zmann on January 15, 2007

And A Happy MLK Day To You Too!
Jamie I’m glad you like the site and I’d hate to be accused of shutting down the clinic for too long. How about some bullets?

1) Opec still threatening emergency meeting. yawn

2) Venezuela nationalized “everything energy” on Saturday – not good for the majors both foreign and domestic who have ops there but probably a boost for oil. I’ll have a nifty chart of Venezuelan production both pre and post Chavez tomorrow.

3) CFTC data shows the net nat gas position turned down again last week. This weather will have to hang on quite some time for the shorts to be really pushed into covering.

4) Oil – probably up early in the week on opec jitters and the ice storm in the midwest. The flat to slightly down on inventories although that’s a hunch and not worth betting ANY JANUARY POSITIONS ON (well maybe some day trades on Thursday but we’ll have to see).

5) The stocks were strong most of Thursday and were exceedingly strong on Friday. They should run into a little resistance very soon (within a few points on the XOI) however if they break through look for Goldman and others to pump away (“goldman sachs loves anacott steel”).

6) Heating oil should see another goodly sized build Wednesday but traders will be looking forward to next week’s number when the cold weather shows up in the data. However, that week will probably show yet another build since the home tanks are full and the distributors have had ever chance to top off at cheap prices over the last two months

7) Natural gas is more immediately reactive to cold. This week will be a bigger draw than the past three high 40 something ones though almost certainly not topping 100 Bcf. Once again traders will salivate over next week’s draw – definitely 100-150 Bcf which falls into the range of normality for this time of year. For gas everything will hinge on the directionality of the two week forecasts – cold stays = gas up.

8) So that’s my impromptu 15 mintues of musings. I’ll have more to say in the morning so stay tuned! And as always, thank you for reading.

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