Gas Inventories Remain 11.6% Above The Five Year Average
- Storage as of March9, 2007: 1,516 Bcf (updated March 15, 2007).
- Max storage for this week in history: 1,832 Bcf (2006). At present gas is at it’s 4th highest level in history for this date.
- We have fallen 17.6% (324Bcf) into year over year deficit.
- We remain 11.6% (158 Bcf) above the 5 year average.
- If you take the coldest 3 week period (second week of March to the end of March) over the last 14 years you get demand of 286Bcf which would still leave 1,230 Bcf in storage. That’s well above the 5 yr average trough level storage (end of March) of 1,025 Bcf (excluding 2006’s warm and Katrina impacted levels) but well below last year’s 1,695 Bcf. And obviously that’s not going to happen.
- Conversely, the warmest 3 week period saw demand of only 15 Bcf which would leave storage at 1,501 Bcf (and probably drop gas to $5.00/Mcf). I don’t think that happens either. I’m estimating we reach trough storage of just under 1,400 Bcf and we bottom out at $6 gas.