zman’s Energy Brain

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Tuesday – OIH Looks Cheap But May Get Cheaper, Also Snafus

Posted by zmann on February 27, 2007

Still Fence Sitting But Getting Closer To Squeezing The Trigger. Of the items mentioned yesterday morning:

  • TK trickled 1.4% lower as VLCC rates continued to come in and the hang over from the Bear Sterns downgrade made itself more widely felt,
  • TSO closed off a whopping $0.30, after a 7% run last week started to cool ever so slightly,
  • BP jumped for a second day over giddiness in settling with plaintiffs from their deadly Texas refinery blast, and
  • BHI and SLB posted slight gains along with most of the OIH (more on that ETF in a bit) despite my long held put positions.
  • Lastly, I continue to watch NXY closely for a breakdown and HES to see if anyone will notice the deluge of shares coming out of management. Otherwise, I continue to watch, listen, and wait for the right time to head back into bigger positions (on either side of the fence).
  • One last thing, PTSG re-rallied 15% to $1.42 and I can’t stress enough how quickly I’d recover my cost on this if further gains take place.

Mother Nature Still Supportive of Prices. I’m still concerned about this last blast of cold weather and now we’ve got fog in the Houston Ship Channel. Maybe they should build an elongated dome over it. Billions of dollars for sure but the guys sending the crude put islands in the ocean so how hard can it be to build a several mile long dome in the name of national oil supply security?

  • HDDs for last week came in higher than expected at 194 instead of the 166 predicted by the Climate Prediction Center, CPC, a week ago. We can kiss a sub 100 Bcf withdrawal for Thursday goodbye on that news and I’ll have a new, slightly higher estimate in tomorrow’s post.
  • Houston Queued Up With No Where To Go. Fog. As of Friday 55 tankers were parked outside the Houston Ship Channel waiting to offload. For a more detailed list of infrastructure issues affecting the price of oil see the section entitled “Snafu watch” later in this post or visit the new Snafu tab if you can’t wait.

A Little Discussion On The OIH. The Amex Oil Service HOLDRs ETF or OIH is comprised of 18 large oil service and drilling companies. The ETF includes a who’s who of service companies Transocean, RIG, the ETF’s largest position making up 10% of holdings down to Hanover Compressor, HC, at 1%. As oil and gas have had stellar rides this decade, so too have oil service company revenues and earnings. My question is whether or not continued out-performance is sustainable.

oih-chart-022507.JPG
Oil Service Analysts Point To Charts Like The Following To Show That The Oil Service Stocks Are Cheap… (this chart shows the range between high and low PE multiples for the OIH for a given year)

service-co-trailing-pe-022507.JPG

…And If Current Estimates Hold Up For 2007, These Stocks Are Even Cheaper

service-co-forward-pe-022507.JPG

But It Took Rising Oil & Natural Gas Prices…

oil-and-gas-prices-for-022507-post.JPG

…For The Majors and E&P Companies To Support Service Cost Inflation Like This.

cera-ucci.JPG

Now Something’s Got To Give Here! Service cost inflation has wildly outpaced production growth yielding large increases in per unit operating costs. Either:

  1. commodity prices must continue resume their long-interrupted upward course, or
  2. service cost prices must stagnate / fall, or
  3. oil and gas companies must live with smaller margins.

Maybe it’s a combination of #2 and #3 that ultimately occurs. Without further increases in oil and gas prices producer margins will be squeezed to the point that they reign in their capital budgets. And if that happens, then everybody (service and producer alike) suffers.

One Last Look At The OIH, From a Component Standpoint. While the forward multiple averages 12x you can see several outliers. Note also that the Street expects earnings growth to slow.

oih-tall-table-no-2.JPG

This post will be permanently archived with all my “Big Picture” posts here.

Odds & Ends

Coal Stocks Down Over Cancelled Plants. Should have seen this coming. Nine planned coal-fired generation plants in Texas get cancelled and it’s a bloodbath for the coal miners. BTU took the worst of it but they all had a good run of late on what can only be called meager gains in coal futures prices. I’ll have an update on coal inventories soon (government data willing) but coal production continues to surge. This probably isn’t good news for CSX and the other coal intensive rails either. Trust me, I’m kicking myself over this since I gave up on coal puts two weeks ago.

Energy Snafu Watch: I’ve taken to googling the refiners and energy sites every time oil spikes of late which is not the best of habits but what can you do when things are so jump of late? The latest list of snafus with their expected TTR (time ’til resolution):

  • VLO refinery: McKee, Tx 158,000 bopd refinery still “several weeks away from restart.”
  • Imperial refinery outage: Expects to run it’s 118,000 bopd capacity Ontario refinery at reduced rates through mid March. Serious shortages and the closure of several filling stations have been reported in the greater Toronto area.
  • BP’s Northstar Field In Alaska: 47,000 bopd offline since around Feb 17th and won’t be up for a few weeks as far as I can tell. If it’s not one BP field it’s another. I’d say statements like that are unfair since they have so many fields but then you read stories like this one where management opted to cut costs by substituting water for corrosion inhibiting chemicals and I gotta yell come on!
  • Houston Ship Channel: The Channel was shut due to Fog last Thursday. If you’ve ever driven into Houston at high speed before dawn you know fog there is no joke. No word yet as to when it will or if it has indeed reopened. This could easily prompt a draw in crude inventories this week and a bigger one next week if the waterway is not quickly reopened.
  • Elk Hills is slowly returning to normal capacity of 120,000 bopd after a 20 day outage due to a natural gas explosion in the field.

As I said earlier, I’ve taken this opportunity to add a Snafu tab above so that monitoring of these outages can be a group thing. I’m sure I missed one or two so please feel free to jump in there with those or anything new.
Reader El Diablo came with an excellent Wiki style way of tracking hot topics. The first is Iran and the dialogue (well, currently a monologue) is up and running here. New topics will crop up weekly and get their own thread while older topics will get archived. Thanks El D for a linear method of keeping up with multiple topics! I wonder if we’ll have one on hurricanes when the time comes?

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80 Responses to “Tuesday – OIH Looks Cheap But May Get Cheaper, Also Snafus”

  1. tom2oc said

    Nice FA on OIH. Thanks. All I need now on the TA side is OIH to trend below that bloody 140 line the nice guys defended successfully yesterday. Crude is down a bit premarket so if OIH gaps below 140, I’ll let cook the puts with either the opening price or 140 as stop depending how it goes and the profit accumulated. I read this morning an article mentioning that oil traders expect a big draw in this week’s inventory numbers confirming your take of yesterday. Congrats, you rock!! This is by far the best energy blog on the internet!

    Because of this I will probably exit the puts whenever I get a buy signal on the 1-5-10 because the nice guys might use this excuse to pump oil later today or before inventories tomorrow. Would re-instate the options, either calls or puts right after inventories tomorrow depending how the knee jerk goes. Or might keep overnight if fat paper profit accumulated to cushion an adverse knee jerk. That is my OIH action plan of today.

    On the market, I’m glad I didn’t buy the 2500 breakout and waiting for a confirmation. Heck, looks like we get a breakout negation now. And the funny thing is that a big part of it is coming from trouble in China like I expected it and commented on your blog like Friday. Gee, gottaluv TA!

    Fun time is finally coming! Have a great day!

  2. zmann said

    Thanks Tom. Pretty nasty early looks on some foreign oil names, PTR/PBR both getting waxed. Could this Shagnhei selloff be part of your long overdue correction you mentioned a few days ago?

  3. tom2oc said

    Well, could be but I doubt it. I would have loved to see the China trouble to be postponed until the end of a possible last leg up in COMP before the start of a good correction. But as said Friday, that chart was too bearish and it was a big TA concern now and not in 5 months. Gee, I hope Phil read my post the other day warning him on his FXI calls.

    Reason I doubt it is will end up to be nothing more than a move back in the bloody 2400/2500 trading range instead of a move leading to the failure of 2400 is because of the extreme bearish sentiment in the market right now. But you won’t read this anywhere though. All commentators and stock blogs gurus say that this market is way too insanely bullish but the reality is quite different as indicated by the put/call ratio.

    The put/call ratio closed on 2/23 at 1.43. This is an extreme reading. There was only one day since 10/17/03 where this ratio closed at a higher level.

    Only when most of the bears will start turning bullish and the put/call ratio comes back down to a more normal or even bullish level will we get the correction bears are looking for. Options buyers are wrong 90% of the times and here are here we are at extreme put/call ratio. How can we correct significantly with so many bears!!

    For that reason, altough I intend to do some daytrading today on the short side I will be very prudent and get ready to switch side on the first sign of another round of bottom fishing. There are tons of shorts who kept shorting and shorting this market for months accumulating huge losses in doing so and now today they finally see a possible way out. “The shorts are are unlike longs. They are a more nervous bunch and they are bound to cover at anytime at the slightest uptick. Shorts are the ultimate longs because they are more ready to buy then anyone else. Shorts will buy to cover at the slightest hint of an uptrend….”

    So a reversal is possible sometime today or in coming days if we get some bullish econ data. I will review the situation at EOD but at this moment, I keep an open mind and frankly I have no clue where the market will be when the closing bell is heard.

    Good luck!

  4. El Diablo said

    RE: Houston Ship Channel fog. Makes no sense to me why this should impact price at all. Houston Ship channel is ‘fogged in’ an average of ‘X’ days per year (just like cold weather shutins, hurricane shutins, etc.) This underlying aspect of our shipping industry is already baselined in prices. The market ‘should’ only react when there is a significant deviation from normal. The only deviation from normal on this matter is the greater-than-normal media attention (not you zmann). I believe this is a clean indicator of the amount of ‘dumb’ speculative money in this market (who feed stories to ‘dumb’ reporters). If they are willing to pay more for crude today because of a normal and routine aspect of nature, we should all be willing to sell to them. I am 100% certain that the Houston ship channel is not fogged-in ‘indefinitely’ and the fog will lift, as it has done thousands of times since the channel was formed millions of years ago.

  5. tom2oc said

    Got out of OIH 135 puts at 2.05 for a double from yesterday. Made my day and can take it easy now. Gee, this thing took 12 full minutes before there was a market on the options. Always the same with OIH but this is a record. Reason why it’s risky to keep OIH options overnight. There is just no market for usually 8 minutes. If you’re on the wrong side of the trade, you can’t get out.

    Anyway, will get back in OIH after inventories now or might run it on the long side if there is a nice guy bounce today. Now looking at all those great long TA opps I kept on a watchlist and that are all at bargain price right now. As soon as I have a good trend revesal signal, if any, I will start loading on those for the reason indicated in post above.

    Going to be a busy day! Good luck!

  6. tom2oc said

    Holy cow, look at that volume on the OIH bounce! This thing is going back up later today! Getting ready to go long now at next entry opp.

  7. dave said

    TK is falling apart. Even GMR is being affected.

  8. zmann said

    TK – I had to step out for the open or I’d have bailed on that one with a nice gain. Reversing hard now and given the action in crude and the propensity for these kind of moves to repeat during the moring hours I’ll wait for now. Still it’s a shame not to have sold my puts into the initial excitement. That was a gift.
    ———————–
    Ship Channel – exactly – but traders will seize on it for all it’s worth. What I’ve noticed is that it gives you a bit of “get out of jail free” pass if numbers come in with bigger than expected draws saw it removes some of the bullish bite to them.

  9. zmann said

    PTR – down $6 and the 200 dma is a point lower. If this Asian market action spreads/repeats tomorrow I think you could easily see $110 from current $116.

  10. tom2oc said

    Don’t shoot me Z, I’m on the oil crooks side now. I’m long OIH 140 calls already nicely black to protect profit. Long DE 115s also and cooking nicely….

  11. zmann said

    Belated Analyst Watch: TGP and TOO (the other TKs downgraded), PTI downgraded to underperform at Credit Suisse.

    Really ticked about the size of the bounce in TK. Looks like a lot of people are playing a day trade bounce in energy. PTR or PBR are good bets if that’s your game.

  12. tom2oc said

    Sorry Z, I admit I played a day trade bounce in energy too but just got at 139.30 for 36% profit as it approached target 140. It’s all yours now, you can sink it below that 140 resistance. I’m off oil now for the day. Too many great TA charts in techs that sunk with the market for no reason. G/L

  13. dave said

    Zman…..me also on TK’s bounce….it may go positive !

  14. zmann said

    No apologies unless you lose money. But then you make those to yourself. I am literally kicking the back of my head over the TK recovery. Fortis just reiterated their hold rating but the shares are up $3 from the low 10 minutes after the open. My position which was a little over a double is now back to just over cost. Ahhhh!!!!

    Crude recovered almost all of its early losses and may be rolling over again. I’d be careful playing any calls because this bounce was awefully quick.

  15. tom2oc said

    Hint: The market is relatively safe as long as BKX holds and closes above 117.50 which is Feb low.

  16. zmann said

    Energy stocks look to be taking their lead from declining XOM and not rising oil at present.

    hmmmm. oops, there goes oil back to new HOD.

    NXY broke down technically.

  17. zmann said

    RAIL and CSX continue to get hurt over the TXU coal fired plant cancellations (and the general market). Anyone here know much about the rails?

  18. tom2oc said

    Might see a strong cubicles’ effect today. Prepare for turbulence in the next 75 min.

  19. zmann said

    You mean the “I just got back from lunch and the market is down how much?” effect?

  20. zmann said

    Steering clear of additional TSO puts. Big upward revision at Citi to high of Street. Others appear likely to follow.

    Citi also chopped VLO numbers heavily in last few days.

    XOM falling to LOD with the DOW and pulling many energy stocks back towards their opening gap downs.

  21. tom2oc said

    LOL! I mean office daytraders making the market move up or down while the pros are out to lunch preparing for the pm action. Gee, have you’ve seen USO up now. Just what I expected premarket. Oil nice guys are positionning themselves for that big draw tomorrow. Tempted to go back long OIH at 138.75 now but, nah…, I better pass and wait for after knee jerk. VIX at 21% now might make this coming pm a pleasant one for longs, as long as the pros concur though.

  22. tom2oc said

    Watch key stock today BKX. If it recovers 117.50 and goes trending above once cubicles’ effect is over that’ll be the signal for a nice short squeeze. MA is on fire that could be an early sign. Nice to rely on the shorts to make this market move.

  23. Rob said

    Sorry I don’t have anything to add, but Zman and Tom thanks for the commentary and please keep it up!

  24. Tom,

    Oil Nice Guys 😛

    I am going to make a shirt that says Oil Nice Guy on the front, and I short on the back.

    Oil nice guys….. I love it

    -SaneO

  25. tom2oc said

    Wow! Put/call ratio at 1.65!!! Highest ever seen! Major short squeeze rally brewing under the surface. Just to go long at the right TA time. And commentators and bears will make you believe that the market sentiment is too bullish! LOL!!! Bears have been trying to short the market for months and now they finally see a way out to cut their losses. Something should get started in the near term. Would take a very small bullish catalyst and we have a lift off. Maybe tomorrow with the econ data but there will be something. This market has been way too bearish for months!!

  26. tom2oc said

    TNX down 1.53%. Another positive. VIX up +21%. Put/call ratio at extreme reading. No way I’m shorting this market. Waiting for a TA buy signal to go long.

  27. zmann said

    Yahoo headline:

    Nigerian Elections my spur more kidnappings. Those elections are in April and that’s probably a pretty good hypothesis.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070227/ap_on_re_af/nigeria_oil_politics

    Thanks Rob. No questions at all. My dad used to say, “the only stupid question was the one that rode down the elevator shaft at the end of the day.” I later found out this was not entirely true if your question plays devil’s advocate against your boss one too many times but here, please feel free to ask away.

  28. Stephen said

    RAIL had a massive backlog in 1H 2006, that is now non-existant. I would not buy despite a P/E of 5.

  29. zmann said

    Thanks for the backlog data point Stephen.

    I was thinking of taking them on as a short. To me, these kind of stocks, similar to the HBs, deserve low PE’s – they are very feast or famine. I read yesterday where there are over 100 coal fired generation plants on the drawing boards which may now be canceled (in light of the TXU “go green” strategy. Obviously, 90% of these aren’t TXU plants but others scattered about the country and sentiment is turning away from them and towards Al Gore! That’s bad news for the likes of RAIL.

  30. zmann said

    Sane – I got another pix of 6 MEND guys in a boat with AK’s. I was going to put a picture of them on the front along with the thumbs up guy on the back followe by the caption,”The 7 most important Opec oil ministers.”

  31. zmann said

    XOM tracking the stocks not oil. Like I said awhile back, it matters who you friends are and XOM has tracked with the Dow and not with oil for the last 6 months. The majors, E&Ps, and oil service stocks have been taking a good bit of their directional cue from XOM as well.

    XOI (oily) and XNG (gassy) indexes look very similar and are not , in my humble non-TA opinion breaking down yet. They are approaching their 50 dma’s but their 200 dma’s are several % points lower

    OIH – broke both its 50 and 200 dma s today and looks like it confirmed the 140 (ish) level as a pretty good top.

    …And now, USO is falling.

  32. zmann said

    Here’s the latest raison du jour for oil being up:

    French oil giant Total fears Venezuela’s drive to take over complex heavy oil projects run by foreign oil companies in the Orinoco belt could lead to operational problems, chairman Thierry Desmarest said today.

    No kidding. Like we didn’t know that. That’s why I’ve got the chart of OPEC country product vs Venezuela standalone and the caption “how not to run an oil country” in the oil marco tab.

  33. zmann said

    Taking the 2x position on XOM (cost $1.25) off the table at $1.75.

  34. Rob said

    Where are you Tom? Too busy trading?

    USO back red. XOM and XLE off big.

  35. zmann said

    Sold that XOM for $1.75 now $2.20. Crap. Still got all my BP $62.50s which had been junked with the refinery settlement.

    On the energy sector – This looks a lot like the capitulatory moves that take 2 or 3 days to wash out.

  36. Rob said

    Would a good (for the oil bears) inventory report tomorrow spark a market rally and continue the selling of E&P?

  37. El Diablo said

    Oil fundamentals are still not important here. The equity market slump has not yet caused the exits to clog. When that happens, the exits will clog EVERYWHERE–oil, copper, corn, US equities, Foreign equities, currencies… Not only is there excessive speculation in all these markets, but they are all ‘crowded trades’–several large funds hold similar positions. This domino effect will include crude and nat gas, regardless of Iran or Houston fog or gas draw. I’m not predicting that the collapse is imminent, just that I believe this is how it will transpire. Data point 1–real estate slump. Data point 2–durable goods slump. Data point 3–equity markets getting jittery. Can’t take a heck of a lot more to freak some of the specualtors out….

  38. zmann said

    Rob – I think it might sell of oil and therefore the E&P ‘s which might put a bit of a brake on the market’s decline. I haven’t looked at consensus for oil yet but it’s got several mitigating factors in it which should prompt pretty big draws.

  39. zmann said

    EL D. Exactly…it’ll take 2 or 3 more days of this to really scare people into a capitulatory sell off. Maybe a bad ISM number. Man they are really jamming out of XOM now.

    Even the USO is getting popped after the close of NYMEX trading.

    Glad I stayed away from the bounce buying this morning on PBT and PTR (and everything else).

    The stocks could take another pretty big hit in the morning.

  40. El Diablo said

    Hah…only took 2-3 mins…..

  41. tom2oc said

    Gee, is the panic selling done now? COMP at support 2400. Started to scale in some QQQ calls just over 2400 for a technical bounce. Was nice to see this going from the sideline even if missed the big slide. Better this than being long. Phew…

  42. dave said

    I left my machine for a hour or so….DOW was about -190 , can not believe the dislocation.

  43. zmann said

    Too far, too fast.

    XOI and OIH getting hammered. XNG (only) off 2% despite the move in their commodity today back toward $7.50.

    kick, kick, kick, over the early XOM put exit.

  44. Rob said

    That was awesome, can we do it again? Vix was at 69%

  45. tom2oc said

    I wished I had repurchased those damn OIH puts sold this morning. Heck that thing went all the way back down. Glad I got out of the call when going near 140 though! LOL! That was fun and awesome Rob!

    GOOG has to reclaim my 452 line now.

  46. zmann said

    $ECO and PBW – Clean energy ETF’s both have had a good run of late. Both are down 5.5% and both will really suffer if the oil stocks have a significant downturn. Many of these oil “substitution” plays are only marginally profitable at $60 + oil and they don’t do well, from a stock standpoint, if the oil and gas group is headed lower.

  47. Raj said

    Tom,

    What is your entry point on OIH (either call or put)?

    R

  48. dave said

    Market sort of reminds me of the 1987 drop.

  49. zmann said

    USO taking it on the chin. I think oil gets hurt over this soon. Say you slow down growth in Asia. The recent upgrades to demand by OPEC and the IEA were based on increased demand from China and India primarily. The geopolitical stuff is in the barrel unless someone starts shooting around Hormuz. Tomorrow’s numbers are expected to be big draws for HO and gasoline but all the stuff holding oil up is temporary and now you have lower asian demand. Wow. Oil could rip through $60 pretty quick and head back to $57.50, $55 , etc….just thinking about what I’m going to write tonight.

  50. zmann said

    Dave – hear 1987. Not as much panic feeling now though. CNBC said an old hand NYSE trader said he’s never seen down volume this high.

  51. tom2oc said

    Dave, same here. Either this will clear the air for the leg above 2500 to start or it will start a significant correction. Gut feel is that for the first scenario to play we would need to see a quick recovery of all losses by the end of this week. This is quite possible seeing the insane level of bearishness now. If it doesn’t happen quickly then all we might get is a dead cat bounce and a failure of 2400 support for lot more trouble ahead. Coming days will be very important. Hopefully we can get some positive econ data to trigger a big short squeeze rally. Only thing to do is to wait and see.

  52. zmann said

    PTR – I think this gets crushed on the open. It’s really not down much more than the other foreign E&P’s. When Asia wakes up in the morning to this selloff it could spread pretty far and wide and PTR could tank locally. Strongly considering the March 110 puts for $1.20. Quick, somebody talk me out of it.

  53. tom2oc said

    Z, you must be making a small fortune today with your oil puts. Congrats! Funny thing is that it crashed not on oil crashing but on the market crashing. Heck at one point before the crash USO was green!

  54. dave said

    Anyone trade APC…about 9,000 may 40/45 calls went off so far.

  55. Stephen said

    I’m in Hong Kong, I can tell you now that the Chinese love a good panic. I bet the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets will be off at least 4% tomorrow. So don’t expect a dead cat bounce tomorrow. I’m just waiting for oil to follow, it can’t stay above $60.

    Do anyone think that someone, someone really clever and with lots of money, tried to move the markets this afternoon? How else can you explain a vertical drop in all three indices.

  56. dave said

    Stephen…..its possible GS,Kingdom Holding,or others, it happened in the futures.

  57. zmann said

    Dave – I do. Man that’s a big bet on the long side.

    Talk about a chart hanging on to the last vestiges of support for dear life. I’m actually wearing one of their shirts right now and I feel a bit guilty about that as I say that I think ultimately they head lower. Prices paid were too high for Kerr and Western gas deals. Still a lot of debt and lower oil and gas prices will start to work against further asset sales. I think they got rid of the easy stuff early but still have $billions to pare back.

  58. tom2oc said

    Stephen, I’m not ruling out a technical bounce after possibly another ugly opening tomorrow. Asian stocks are known to drop hard and bounce hard too.

  59. zmann said

    I just realized I picked a helluva day to write about how the OIH could get even cheaper! Down in line with the DJIA’s 3% drop.

    Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart!

  60. zmann said

    Small PTR put done at $110 for $1.30 (paid offer). Need that down open Tom’s talking about.

  61. Rob said

    GDP tomorrow morning at 8:30… Good existing housing sales and consumer confidence did nothing to the market this morning.

  62. tom2oc said

    Raj, sorry I missed your post. On OIH I feel it might be stuck in a 135/140 range for some time. So I might go long on a buy signal above 135 and short on a sell signal near 140. Heck, this is what I should have done today when it briefly got very near 140. I was following USO and that was the mistake. OIH followed the market today, not OIH. Above 140 is bullish and below 135 is bearish of course.

  63. zmann said

    P.Wilmington – just saw your Iran post. It got caught in the spam blocker. Good stuff! Disturbing yet humorous…still more disturbing. Thanks for the input. Jump in anytime!

    I approved it but if you ever see a delay again please note it over here so I can get to it quicker

  64. zmann said

    Not that it matters since the stocks are keying off the broader market but USO closed on low of day down $0.95 of 125% of average volume. It must be the worst ETF of all time.

  65. tom2oc said

    Feel the same here, next days are crucial:

    “Whether it’s contained to today or if it’s the beginning of a more serious correction, we’ll have to see over the next couple of days,” said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates

  66. dave said

    I thank you all for the posts……Martini time.

  67. zmann said

    Dave – hear ya. Red wine time for me…I thought of opening some of the good stuff but I’m on the fence about it until Friday. ;->

  68. zmann said

    Guys just wanted to say thanks for all the comments! This was the single biggest comment day and the second biggest hit count day (over 1,200). Brings a tear to me eye. Actually it just makes me want to write tonight knowing you’re out there…from Stephen in Hong Kong to some guy/gal in Ireland, to several guys in Tehran. Thanks for reading and commenting!

  69. tom2oc said

    Heck, that was fun Z! Thanks for your great blog. It’s getting to have the feeling of Phil’s blog before it went off. But I need to limit the comments to oil sector and OIH because I’m off topic. Sorry about that. There’s enough material with the “nice guys” working hard at pumping oil anyway.

  70. tom2oc said

    Always a fun day when beating the damn oil nice guys! Yeah! Going for a nice cold beer now! See you tomorrow for more oil fun.

  71. zmann said

    Oil closed regular session up $0.07, after market trading shows April crude off $0.72 at $60.67

    Gas was down $0.17 now down another nickel to $7.48 (April)

  72. Man I come out of my evelasting ( and patheticly useless ) meeting and I see the dow drops 400!!!!!

    Man I always seem to miss all the action.

    Hey z, That new rebel t-shirt sounds even better

    -SaneO

  73. p.wilmington said

    Zman – You’re welcome. I’ve been trading for many years, but stayed away from energy, simply for lack of deep knowledge. But I got interested a little more than a year ago when someone in the family got very high on BPG and tried to convince me to jump in. I did a lot of DD and was able to stop any of our dollars from going down the drain. But that started my interest in energy and I have really appreciated your blog. I don’t post much here, because my knowledge of energy is simply not up to yours and some of the other regulars.

    But, if I do have something to offer, I will jump in.

  74. mike said

    Something was too “deep” for me today in the markets – but I don’t think it was knowledge! 🙂

  75. mike said

    ZZZ – I noted that IBD’s up vol. recorded solf and tsl (solars) yesterday for big gainers. I wonder what a 14% and a 16% drop looks like for Al Gore fans today!?

  76. zmann said

    $ECO and PBW got slapped for 5.5% total today. OUch. Lots of those components have no hope of profits if oil or coal fall off here. Very ugly for the A.G. fan club. It’s amazing how quickly big companies have jumped on the green bandwagon…just saw GE green commercial that reminded me of the BP ads before everything fell apart for those guys.

  77. Stephen said

    I think we all come here, because the analysis is so good.

    Certainly far better than my analysis. I still don’t understand how Shanghai has risen 3.9% today. Hong Kong HSI (fell 2.46%), Tokyo Nikkei (fell 2.85%), Singapore STI (fell 3.72%), Australia ASX 200 (fell 2.69%), were all ready to drop around 3%, but Shanghai has pulled them back up. Obviously, I don’t understand the Shanghai market.

    I hope you make money on those PTR puts.

  78. […] Here’s a very cursory inspection of the latest gas data as I mull over getting a little bullish. I know it’s shocking since I’ve been bearish since the inception of this blog. For those of you using me as a contrarian indicator (you know who you are!) this is your first and only warning to take profits on longs. Note: service stocks are a different matter and I’m unlikely to get bullish unless they get thrashed this spring as they are earnings momentum animals and they appear to be decelerating (see my note on dissecting the OIH here). […]

  79. […] Here’s a very cursory inspection of the latest gas data as I mull over getting a little bullish. I know it’s shocking since I’ve been bearish since the inception of this blog. For those of you using me as a contrarian indicator (you know who you are!) this is your first and only warning to take profits on longs. Note: service stocks are a different matter and I’m unlikely to get bullish unless they get thrashed this spring as they are earnings momentum animals and they appear to be decelerating (see my note on dissecting the OIH here). […]

  80. […] Here’s a very cursory inspection of the latest gas data as I mull over getting a little bullish. I know it’s shocking since I’ve been bearish since the inception of this blog. For those of you using me as a contrarian indicator (you know who you are!) this is your first and only warning to take profits on longs. Note: service stocks are a different matter and I’m unlikely to get bullish unless they get thrashed this spring as they are earnings momentum animals and they appear to be decelerating (see my note on dissecting the OIH here). […]

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