zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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Just for Jamie!

Posted by zmann on January 15, 2007

And A Happy MLK Day To You Too!
Jamie I’m glad you like the site and I’d hate to be accused of shutting down the clinic for too long. How about some bullets?

1) Opec still threatening emergency meeting. yawn

2) Venezuela nationalized “everything energy” on Saturday – not good for the majors both foreign and domestic who have ops there but probably a boost for oil. I’ll have a nifty chart of Venezuelan production both pre and post Chavez tomorrow.

3) CFTC data shows the net nat gas position turned down again last week. This weather will have to hang on quite some time for the shorts to be really pushed into covering.

4) Oil – probably up early in the week on opec jitters and the ice storm in the midwest. The flat to slightly down on inventories although that’s a hunch and not worth betting ANY JANUARY POSITIONS ON (well maybe some day trades on Thursday but we’ll have to see).

5) The stocks were strong most of Thursday and were exceedingly strong on Friday. They should run into a little resistance very soon (within a few points on the XOI) however if they break through look for Goldman and others to pump away (“goldman sachs loves anacott steel”).

6) Heating oil should see another goodly sized build Wednesday but traders will be looking forward to next week’s number when the cold weather shows up in the data. However, that week will probably show yet another build since the home tanks are full and the distributors have had ever chance to top off at cheap prices over the last two months

7) Natural gas is more immediately reactive to cold. This week will be a bigger draw than the past three high 40 something ones though almost certainly not topping 100 Bcf. Once again traders will salivate over next week’s draw – definitely 100-150 Bcf which falls into the range of normality for this time of year. For gas everything will hinge on the directionality of the two week forecasts – cold stays = gas up.

8) So that’s my impromptu 15 mintues of musings. I’ll have more to say in the morning so stay tuned! And as always, thank you for reading.

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4 Responses to “Just for Jamie!”

  1. Jamie said

    Zmann, Wow, that is service! Thank you so much. You are THE man, Jamie

  2. Jamie said

    Zmann, As COP, MUR, XOM and BP are announcing results over the next 3 weeks, are they worth playing only if oil is resuming it’s downward trend, or would you play them as an event unto themselves? Thanks again, Jamie

  3. zmann said

    Anytime!
    ———————
    As you know MUR is a favorite of mine (on the put side) right now so I’ll be playing them that way into earnings unless they fall apart. As to the others I’m in and out but likely in just before earnings of the first major especially if oil has been rising prior to that date. I’d actually like to see a little recovery in the commodity (but not above $55-57) prior to releases. I’ll have more to say about XOM soon but it’s a secret. Gotta go inspect my daughter’s latest painting. See ya soon.

  4. ramana said

    Zmann, with impending alternative energy bills coming up in Congress, do you see any impact on oil prices (of course discounting the usual Nigerian Rebel attacks, OPEC circus, etc)…any alternative plays ?

    – Ramana

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