zman’s Energy Brain

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Archive for December 29th, 2006

Friday – 46 Bcf? Now That’s Pathetic

Posted by zmann on December 29, 2006

For the week ended December 22, 2006:

Expectations: 60 Bcf

Reality: 46 Bcf

That leaves us with 3,121 Bcf in storage (a new record high for this time of year):

  • 458 Bcf (18%!) above year ago levels.
  • 355 Bcf (13%) above the five year average.

The reporting period had 156 heating degree days in it but as Gunga adeptly pointed out in comments yesterday those degree days were in the wrong place to increase gas heating demand. The producing region actually witnessed a small build (pretty damn late in the season for that!)

Next week’s estimate for heating degree days rises a bit to 168 and they are a little more evenly spread out. From that, say we get a draw of 100 Bcf for the final week of 2006.

That leaves us with year end storage of over 3 Tcf. – also a record and not good for gas prices.

5 yr average trough storage (end of Marc): 1,216 Bcf. The five year average would have been 1025 without the inclusion of this year which was 1,695.

Coldest Jan-Mar period saw gas withdrawals of  1,635 Bcf (2002). This would yield trough storage of 1,386 Bcf.
Warmest Jan-Mar period had withdrawals of  873 Bcf (2000). This would yield trough storage of 2,148 Bcf. The current record high for trough storage is 1695 set in 2006.

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