zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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Archive for November 15th, 2006

Wednesday Morning – Waiting For Direction

Posted by zmann on November 15, 2006

Pretty quiet day as we await inventories: Not much company , weather, rebel or any other kind of news. Airline merger likely to life the transports and the Dow which in turn will left XOM and probably the oil and gas sector early. This could provide a few opportunities for entering a couple of favorite oily put plays (SU, HOC) but I’m waiting to see how inventories are received.

Oil & Gas: Both showing up slightly in pre market trading as inventory reports approach. Analysts are looking for a build of 900,000 barrels of crude but a draw of 1 mm barrels of distillate.

Opec Watch: OPEC expects 2006 world oil demand will average 84.3 mmbopd, unchanged since its last estimate. It has 2007 growth to 85.6 mmbopd, representing a slight upward revision due to increased demand from China (which the Russians are working on supplying). Opec sees Non-opec supply growth of 1.8 mm bopd in 2007, unchanged from last month’s estimate but you can see why they’re worried.  Kuwait and other members are looking to cut an additional 300,000 bopd at the December meeting.

It’s Still Hot. Though the blizzard in Colorado is getting all the press it’s still warmer than normal in most of the country which is depressing heating oil and gas demand .

German Oil Inventories Up. PVM Associates said German (Euroope’s largest oil consumer) heating oil inventories have advanced sharply in recent weeks.  I seen much the same out of Japan and we all know the story on this side of the pond (7% above the five year average for those of you who don’t).

Holding Watch: HAL – Cramer continues to pump this stock and the planned IPO of KBR so was up in AH.

Analyst Watch: Bernstein cuts GSF,EOG,APC to sell.

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