zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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Monday Addendum – El Nino Update

Posted by zmann on November 13, 2006

El Nino Alive But Barely. The latest from NOAA on El Nino shows a weak but slightly strenghtening El Nino event.

–Equatorial SSTs are just above neutral indicating the El Nino condition remains but I’d tell you from my past studies that the severity of the event is directly tied to predictability of both the expected warmer than normal conditions in North America and the drier than normal effects upon the Pacific Northwest.

–Given that SSTs are within a degree of neutral, I wouldn’t hang my hat on El Nino as an explanation of the recent warm temps across much of the country nor would I give it much credence for prediciting a warmer than normal winter just yet.

–Moreover, the truely strong El Ninos that resulted in “hot” winters were all more developed before this late in the season.

— Still, since I’m an unabashed commodity bear at this point and since the fundamentals need all the help they can get in persuading both heating oil and natural gas lower, having El Nino reaasert itself doesn’t hurt my case in the least.

 

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5 Responses to “Monday Addendum – El Nino Update”

  1. zmann said

    I just added Email notification of new posts for those of you interested. Just click the link at left.

  2. zmann said

    Oil broke my $58.50 target from this moring($58.35 so far is the low) so next big test is $58 (round number support), then $57.60 support of last resort. XOM is advancing towards another all time high…$8 billion is a lot of money with which to prop up your stock. Probably makes you less than choosy until you consider the fact that with oil prices of close to 30% from their highes and down over 15% for a sequential quarterly average. They will have to slow down on the repurchase soon or start dinging E&P, R&M, or Chemical division capital expenditures soon. I don’t the budget being reallocated to continue to the pace of the buyback but I could be wrong.

  3. zmann said

    XOM Form 4 for Tillerson (CEO): received 57,000 shares (about 10% of his holdings) and sold them all for an immedate double. Not exactly a bullish call by their leader as he continues to use cash flow to buy back the stock.

  4. zmann said

    Very light volumes in the stocks today. XOM at about 2/3rds strength. Refiners at roughly half average volumes, same for large cap independent E&P stocks.

    USO down a buck on double normal volumes.

    Oil is now down $2.20 in last 2 trading days. XOI and XOM essentially unched.

  5. zmann said

    Appliances are about to get more efficient and expensive.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061113/ap_on_go_ot/energy_standards

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