Monday Addendum – El Nino Update
Posted by zmann on November 13, 2006
El Nino Alive But Barely. The latest from NOAA on El Nino shows a weak but slightly strenghtening El Nino event.
–Equatorial SSTs are just above neutral indicating the El Nino condition remains but I’d tell you from my past studies that the severity of the event is directly tied to predictability of both the expected warmer than normal conditions in North America and the drier than normal effects upon the Pacific Northwest.
–Given that SSTs are within a degree of neutral, I wouldn’t hang my hat on El Nino as an explanation of the recent warm temps across much of the country nor would I give it much credence for prediciting a warmer than normal winter just yet.
–Moreover, the truely strong El Ninos that resulted in “hot” winters were all more developed before this late in the season.
— Still, since I’m an unabashed commodity bear at this point and since the fundamentals need all the help they can get in persuading both heating oil and natural gas lower, having El Nino reaasert itself doesn’t hurt my case in the least.