zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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Friday Addendum-I thought that gas number looked funny

Posted by zmann on October 27, 2006

The EIA has changed their tally of gas in storage one year ago. The historical data can be found here and remains unchanged showing 3,155 Bcf in storage one year ago.

Yesterday’s storage report shows year ago storage of 3,128 Bcf.

These guys have altered the historical data in for the report (and not commented on it) but not yet updated the historical data support files.

They’re now saying there was less gas in storage a year ago than they said so to account for it, they adjusted this week’s injection (and probably some intervening ones as well) downward to get to the end result they wanted.

That helps to explain why, in a week not THAT much colder than the prior one injections tumbled from 53 Bcf to 19.  I keep an excel file of the storage figures and the only reason I noticed the change was that people were reporting a 333 Bcf surplus to last year vs mine at 306.

Way to slip one by everyone and report a tiny injection. Your tax dollars at work. Nice job guys.

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10 Responses to “Friday Addendum-I thought that gas number looked funny”

  1. Tom2oc said

    Geez, can’t believe how this sector is crooked. Enron/Worldcom was nothing compared to this. They must have a license to steal!

    But what can we do? NOTHING!! As long as cars will run only on oil, we’re screwed!

  2. SaneObserver said

    Tom,

    Crooked is too light of a word to use. The energy market is a terrible and crooked mess. Inacurate numbers that can be skewed any which way to fit the purpose. Pick and choose reporting ( ex. LOOP closing ). Hell, yesterday Bloomberg tried to tell me that there were 71 hours in a day ( They said the LOOP was closed for 1 day ). Scare, scare, and scare some more.

    I laugh at the idea that the economy is strong. 1 year ago… yes, today….. NO. If everything was slowing down at the same rate, I would say growth has slowed, but the economy is strong, but all I have seen is numbers all over the board. Some sectors are booming, others are crashing. GDP down, market UP. ect.. etc.. etc.. Not to mention funny money everywhere.

    The way I see it is, if energy/commodities flatten out the economy comes in for a rough/bummpy landing. If energy/commodities ease up we could soft land. If they go back up, buckle you seat belt, because we are going to crash.

    They know all of this, but as Phil says, “It dosen’t matter”. Something has to give sometime, but just like you said, I will probally be dead before it happens”

    It is frustrating………

    -SaneO

  3. zmann said

    SU: up $12 in 16 calendar days with oil flat. Other than being light on their production numbers for the third quarter and reaffirming that they won’t grow again until 2008, nothing has changed. Wow. There is a hugh pump in the oil and services sectors. Goldman is beating the crap out of Lehman on this call but the fundamentals are with the latter.

  4. zmann said

    Notice that today’s oil rally didn’t occur with the news on terror threats to Saudi’s loading port (which is actually a month old) but with the close of European commodities trading.

  5. SaneObserver said

    You know, it just reafirms to me that the sector is maipulated. Euro market closed…. Pump, 1/2 before then NYMEX closes…. Pump.

  6. zmann said

    HAL

    Things that really hack me off:

    http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/25/news/companies/military_contractors/?postversion=2006102519

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061027/ap_on_go_ot/iraq_contracts

  7. SaneObserver said

    HAL….. Good to see our tax dollars at work
    ( w/ crappy look on my face )

    -SaneO

  8. zmann said

    From Baker Hughes today:

    “We expect the industry to take appropriate actions in the first half of 2007 to rebalance the North America natural gas market and we expect continued growth outside of North America.”

    – bad news for the likes o PTEN, PDE, BRNC, GSF

  9. […] Gas was down slightly on the week. Frankly I was shocked by the yawning reaction of gas to the much lower than expected storage injection last Thursday. It was like the tradersin unison said, “yup, that’s a squirrely number.” Although many analysts will undoubtedly predict a small injection or even a small draw I looking for a build in the 20-25 Bcf range this Thursday. True, last week saw some of the coolest weather of the season but barring further governmental adjustments, we should see larger numbers until the really cold weather hits. Next week’s number looks likely to get back into the 30 range. The energy groups peaked mid week and fell off following oil and gas lower on Thursday. The rally of the last 3 weeks has been impressive but looks to be faltering: […]

  10. […] Gas Inventory Day. Oooooh, Aaaahhhh. We could get a pull given the cold weather but I still doubt it. Last week’s number was unbelievable low. Here’s my take on that. If we get a pull (which some analysts are now forecasting) gas will trade briefly back over $8 which might be a good thing as it could flush out some hedge funds who could made their bet and have a quick, sizable gain. I’m still going with 20 to 25 but the street ranges from a draw of 29 to a build of 35 so simply stated, a draw will boost prices, a build will tear them down. […]

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