zman’s Energy Brain

oil, gas, stocks, etc…

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OPEC Monday

Posted by zmann on October 9, 2006

Opec says they now have “pretty much got consensus on a 1 mm bopd cut”. Hmm, sounds familiar. Sounds pretty weak. Last week it was going to be “at least 1 mm bopd” and an “emergency meeting on Oct 18-19”. Now it looks like it can wait until the regularly scheduled meeting on Dec. 14.

— Shell added back 18,000 bopd from the Cawthorne Channel in eastern Nigeria. That leaves a total of 584,000 bopd offline due to rebel activity. Shell expects close to 500,000 bopd of this production to be back on line in 1H07 while the remaining Chevron production is on permahold.

— North Korea set off a small underground nuke Sunday that the US detected seismically. Kim Jong was feeling a little neglected, what with all the other crazies out there grabbing headlines, so he pops of a nuke. Good for you, we noticed, now sit down and shut up. By the way, we regularly send this guy heating oil tankers in the winter because his glorious DPRK is such a model of efficiency. Kim, we may just let it get really cold there this winter so better hug that uranium tight.

— November Oil is up $0.65 @ $60.41 (as high as $60.60 earlier this am). Yawn. I’m sure it will be a volatile day but this is not the big move in oil the OPECies want.  For that, I believe you have to knock down 2 mm bopd (75% of which must come from the Saudis) and that’s highly unlikely.

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2 Responses to “OPEC Monday”

  1. Jon said

    zman,

    This site looks like a great idea. I’ve been looking for some links like the ones in your right panel. Between you, Phil, and Tom I should have more reading than I can keep up with.

    And a question: I know the crack spread is shrinking, but is it shrinking more or less for the refiners that can do heavy sour, like VLO, FTO, HOC versus TSO, which I understand needs the light sweet for most of their operations?

    Jon

  2. zmann said

    As you guessed a little less for the heavy users. That chart on the site is a bit dated now but I’ll run a breakout this week and see if I can see a significant divergence. As far as trading these guys, they generally move in the same direction but of the 3 heavies, I would focus on puts on HOC, small and twice the price doesn’t bode well in this market. And thanks for playing, you were my #1 comment. Gotta send you a door prize!

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