zman’s Energy Brain

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Mild Winter Expected – So far

Posted by zmann on September 30, 2006

I’ve found AccuWeather to be fairly, well, accurate for summer and winter temps in the Lower 48. Currently their short, medium, and long range (90 day) forecasts all calling for a warmer than normal winter:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/maps-temperature.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=us_&large=0&fday=1&type=temp

You can page through all the time ranges but it stays pretty red (warm) throughout. While I think these guys are pretty good I don’t what is the key driver in their model right now for this warm winter – if it’s the weak but strengthening El Nino then we’ll have to see further strengthening in Pacific SSTs to give their forecast more credibility.

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