Macro Posts
An archive of Big Picture posts:
OIH – Cheap But It Could Get Cheaper – 2/26/07
YahooFinance Article: Elk Hills Rally Overdone + Early February Gas Commentary -2/9/07
YahooFinance Article: Oil Set To Fall While Gas Continues To Hang On With The Cold. – 2/5/07
Rig Commentary At The Beginning of 4Q Earnings Season
Wednesday – Oil Inventory Day + A Word About Costs.
Seeking Alpha Article: Oil & Gas Inventories Remain High
Testy Tuesday – Thoughts On Opec, Venezuela, and More…
Bill Fraser said
the fall in refinery demand this fall has been
quite severe, exceeding even last year s hurricane inspired drop.
Given the lengthy maintenance period this spring, the depth and
duration of this year s maintenance was somewhat surprising.
The result has been that the inventory surplus at the end of Q3 has
been run down very quickly and the call on imports definitely
seems to be rising again The crude market has been depressed by
Opec s output cuts. Less visible, but highly important, has been
the drop in Russian crude exports during the last couple of
months. A combination of high export taxes and suspended
supplies to Lithuania caused seaborne volumes to drop to a twoyear
low nearly 0.5 mbd below last year. Coming on top of slower-
than-expected ramp up of non-Opec supply this winter, seaborne
demand has been dealt a veritable blow in Q4. By the looks
of the continued strong inventory declines in the US and the restart
of Russian exports (as showed by the afra- and suezmax
markets in the Med), it looks as though it s been a single punch
rather than a full twelve rounds. Much will now hang on how
Opec evaluates the situation through January.
from bassoe on tanker demand
click on weekly reports
Bill Fraser said
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